The New Year is just half a month later. The property market is in a state of stagnation. Major developers have stopped launching their first- hand properties. The prolonged sluggishness market has been disrupted their sales plans. If this is the case, it is better to postpone launching the new properties before the Lunar New Year holiday. They anticipate that this traditional high season will give a boost to the half-frozen property market and break new ground in the coming year.

It is normal for developers to have such ideas. However, this Lunar New Year is different from the past few decades. It is because the new-elected US President Trump will take office on January 20, which is before the Lunar New Year. At the same day of his inauguration, he will impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imported goods. It is almost certain that this is only the appetizer for the trade war between China and U.S. Therefore, the chance for the property market to bottom out after the lunar new year is extremely low. This anticipated recovery is the only hope that the developers are longing for a better property market.

Under uncertain market conditions, the owners of second-hand properties keep on selling their units with broader reducing price range, hoping to close the deals before Trump takes office. Indeed, they believe that the later they sell their units, the lower prices it will be.

Buyers are also becoming less and less confident in entering the market, and they also believe that the later they purchase, the higher bargaining power they will have. In order to stabilize the property market, most of property KOLs with agency backgrounds have the same tone to foresee the property market will rebound next year. Their purpose is to cover up the facts in case the potential buyers will delay or even abandon their purchase.

At present, it is not necessary to argue whether the property market will rise or fall next year, as the answer has already been written on the wall. There is no doubt that the property market will encounter turbulent waves in 2025. 

Firstly, the number of negative assets will rise to more than 100,000 cases. Secondly, more than 30% of shop investors will become bankrupt one by one. Thirdly, the number of transactions of first-hand and second-hand properties will fall by a further 10%. Fourthly, the property will fall 15%. Lastly, the government's fiscal deficit will rise to more than HK$150 billion. Under this trend, if you want to keep yourself alive, you will better lie flat and watch the world as time goes by.